2024 US Election Watcher's Guide
Once again, we are about to view a season finale of my favourite show, AMERICA! - although there are rumours of it being cancelled instead of being renewed for another four-year season, which would be a bummer.
I am, of course, talking about the 2024 US elections taking place today, but due to time zones being what they are, we will not get any results until tomorrow about mid-day, NZ time. I like to joke about it being at least as entertaining as most TV series, with good guys, bad guys, plot twists and of course a bombastic season finale every four years. And as with many long-running TV series, it can be difficult to keep up with for more casual viewers. So here is my personal, sort-of definite guide of what to watch out for and how to interpret results as they come in.
What's happening?
A whole lot of elections throughout the United States of America. The biggest one is of course the presidential election that will determine whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump spend the next four years in the White House. There is also one third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives up for re-election, and combined these form the federal Legislative, able to pass laws, with the Senate also getting to confirm various presidential appointments like Judges and cabinet members.
These three are what I will mostly focus on, but keep in mind that there are also many more local elections and ballot measures that directly impact state-level laws up to be voted on.
I don't care about all the details, I just want to know who will be President!
Okay, so, the simple version for who wins the presidency is: It's complicated. Harris will almost certainly get more votes than Trump, but that doesn't help her much, because the US President isn't elected by popular vote. Instead, the individual 50 states have a number of electoral votes based on population and (almost) all of them give all those votes to whoever wins the state. You can see a map and aggregated polls here, for example. Because many of the states are very close and could go either way, it is almost impossible to say who has the edge - although personally I think Harris is more likely to win.
Alright, so when WILL we know?
It might take a few days, or possibly even weeks. Some of the states that are most likely going to be the deciding votes have laws that mean counting votes takes longer (e.g. Pennsylvania) and North Carolina has just been hit by a major hurricane that is likely going to affect things. Often, major news organisations call a state when it is clear who will win, before all the votes have been counted, and they are very rarely wrong. Here is a list of states to watch out for:
Pennsylvania: Arguably THE most important swing state this year. If Harris wins here, she is very likely going to be President. If Trump wins it, he has the edge, but Harris might still be in the race as she has more potential alternatives.
North Carolina: As I said above, it may take longer to count here. As with Pennsylvania, if Harris wins this one, she is likely going to win enough others to be President, if Trump wins, he has an important edge but may still lose.
Georgia: Biden won here as the first Democrat since Clinton in 1992. This year, trump is ahead in the polls but not far enough to be safe. As with the two above, if Harris wins Georgia, she is on the path to victory.
Wisconsin and Michigan: The flipside to Georgia in many ways - in 2016, Trump won these as the first Republican in decades, but then he lost them again in 2020. This year, Harris is ahead in the polls, but not safe. If Trump wins one or both of them, he likely has the election in the bag.
Iowa: Iowa is normally a fairly red (Republican-leaning) state, but Obama won here twice and some recent polls indicate Harris may have a chance. If she wins Iowa, she is likely to win the election.
Ohio, Florida and Texas: These three are not really swing states (they are generally reliably Republican) but all of them have a small chance of flipping. If Harris wins one of them, she is likely going to win the election in a landslide.
Virginia and New Hampshire: The counterpart to the last three, these are normally reliably Democratic, but might flip if Trump does exceedingly well. If he wins either of them (especially Virginia), it will be a landslide victory for him.
Arizona and Nevada: These are both likely to be very close, but because of their location polls there close later - so if the election is a landslide, it may already be over by the time they report results. If it is close, they may be the tipping point.
So, what about the Senate?
The Senate is one of the two Houses of Congress that together form the legislative (law-making) branch of the government. Each of the 50 states has two Senators, regardless of size or population. This gives the Republicans an edge, because many of the rural, lower-population states are very conservative. Despite this, the Democrats currently have a very small majority (51-49), although this includes four independent Senators that are aligned with them. This year is a very tough map for them, however, because many of the incumbent Democrats are in Republican-leaning states and may lose (and one of these incumbents, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, is retiring and his seat is almost certainly going to flip to the Republicans), while there are no good opportunities for them - they might win Texas or Florida, and there is an independent that has a chance in Nebraska that might wind and then might align with them, but all of these are long shots. All in all, the most likely outcome is that the Republicans will end up with a small majority. If the Senate is tied 50-50, the Vice President gets to break ties, so in that case, the winner of the Presidency will also determine the winner in the Senate. States to watch here are:
Montana: A very Republican state with a Democratic Senator (Jon Tester) that is likely to lose (but still has a chance). If he wins, the Democrats will likely hold the Senate.
Ohio: Another Republican-leaning state with a Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown. Ohio is not quite as red as Montana, and Brown has won a few times before and has about even odds of winning again.
Nebraska: There are actually two Senate elections here because Ben Sasse, who wasn't up for re-election, got a better job. Only one of the two is competitive, however, and that one has the Republican Deb Fisher up against independent Dan Osborn. The Democrats support Osborne, and he might win, and if he does, he might support the Democrats. If that happens, the Democrats have decent odds of holding the Senate after all.
Texas and Florida: Both of these states are fairly reliably Republican but close enough to allow for an upset. Both also have fairly unpopular Republican Senators in Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rick Scott (Florida), and if the Democrats win one of these, they have a good chance at holding the Senate - but they are both long shots.
Pennsylvania, Maryland and Wisconsin: These are in a way the counterparts to Florida and Texas - they are likely to go Democratic but might flip, and if any one of them does, it's pretty much game over for the Democrats.
And what about the House?
The House of Representatives is the other chamber of Congress, with significantly more members - 435 to be exact, each of whom represents one district, and each district has roughly the same population. All of them are up for reelection every two years, including this one. It's a lot more complex because of the larger number, but in short, the Republicans currently have a small majority, and about even odds of holding it or losing it to the Democrats. If Harris does well, the Democrats have a good chance of winning the House.
What does it all mean?
If one party gets all three (President, Senate and House), they are said to have the Trifecta that allows them to pass almost any laws they want, as long as all of their members are on board. Of course, if the majority in one of the chambers is small, that may not be the case - the Senate, in particular, is notorious for individual mavericks sabotaging their party, such as the Republican John McCain when he came in from his hospital bed and prevented the Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare from being abolished, or the former Democrat Joe Manchin when he held up Bidens signature Inflation Reduction Act for over a year and only allowed a very reduced version of it to pass.
Published at NZDT